تولید ایدۀ توسعۀ محصول جدید با آینده‌نگاری راهبردی و تحلیل روند علم، فناوری و بازار

Extended Abstract
 
Introduction: This research proposes a comprehensive framework for new product development (NPD) grounded in strategic foresight, specifically focusing on the dynamic and uncertain perfume industry to generate innovative ideas for women's fragrances. The framework addresses the critical need for businesses to anticipate future trends and consumer preferences in the NPD process, enabling them to proactively develop products aligned with evolving market demands rather than simply reacting to current trends. This proactive approach is crucial for sustained success in today's volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) business environment.
Methodology: The proposed two-phase framework integrates quantitative and qualitative methods for a robust analysis of scientific, technological, and market trends. Phase one employs a mixed-methods approach to identify and analyze emerging trends. Scientific trend monitoring involves bibliometric analysis, encompassing keyword co-occurrence network analysis using VOSviewer, content analysis of highly cited papers, and topic modeling to uncover underlying research themes. Technological trend monitoring utilizes patent analysis, including CPC code frequency and co-occurrence network analysis, network index analysis to pinpoint impactful patents and emerging technologies, subject-action-object (SAO) analysis to understand the functional aspects of patented technologies, and topic modeling of patent texts. Market trend monitoring analyzes product features of top-performing perfumes, explores association rules between features, applies topic modeling to customer reviews from platforms like Parfumo, performs sentiment analysis to gauge consumer perceptions of brands and product attributes, and utilizes link prediction algorithms (e.g., LSTM networks) to forecast future combinations of fragrance notes. Phase two translates these identified trends into tangible product concepts. Semi-structured interviews with industry experts provide insights into potential opportunities and challenges, which are then thematically analyzed. Based on these insights and the trend analysis, initial product ideas are generated. These ideas are then refined through a Delphi process, involving iterative expert feedback and evaluation based on criteria such as feasibility, market potential, and alignment with identified trends. This iterative refinement process leads to a final set of robust and market-ready product concepts.
Discussion and Results: The implementation of the framework within the perfume industry yielded valuable insights across scientific, technological, and market trends, ultimately informing the development of innovative fragrance concepts. Scientifically, research emphasized not only core perfume chemistry, safety, and environmental impact but also explored interdisciplinary areas like the taste and sensory perception of food, potentially influencing fragrance development by deepening the understanding of aroma and olfactory perception. Analytical techniques for identifying volatile compounds remained a key focus, driving advancements in fragrance analysis and development. Further, research delving into plant biology and the biosynthesis of aromatic compounds suggested a growing interest in sustainable and naturally-derived fragrance ingredients. Emerging trends included using fMRI to study neural responses to scents, offering potential for personalized fragrance design based on emotional responses, and applying percolation techniques for extracting aromatic compounds, potentially leading to more efficient and sustainable extraction processes. Technologically, patent analysis revealed a clear trend towards targeted fragrance delivery and controlled release mechanisms, utilizing technologies like microencapsulation and nanoencapsulation to enhance longevity and sillage. This aligned with market demand for longer-lasting fragrances. The use of sustainable and bio-based raw materials gained traction, reflected in patents exploring alternative extraction sources, biotechnology, and green chemistry. Furthermore, advanced analytical techniques and quality control methods, including electronic noses, chromatography, mass spectrometry, and the application of AI and machine learning, emerged as areas of innovation, promising more efficient and precise fragrance development and evaluation. Innovative packaging solutions focused on controlled release, smart and interactive features, and sustainable materials, indicating a growing emphasis on enhancing user experience and minimizing environmental impact. Market analysis, based on top-performing women's fragrances, confirmed a shift in consumer preferences towards multifunctional products offering benefits beyond scent, such as aromatherapy and skincare properties. A desire for complex and sophisticated olfactory experiences, moving beyond simple fragrance profiles, was also evident, with growing interest in layered scents and unusual note combinations. Longevity and sillage remained crucial purchasing factors, driving demand for long-lasting and impactful fragrances. Personalization emerged as a significant trend, reflecting a desire for unique scents that express individual style and identity, with increasing interest in bespoke perfumes and fragrance layering. Finally, sustainability and ethical considerations gained prominence, with consumers showing increasing concern for environmental impact, ethical sourcing of ingredients, and brand transparency. The link prediction analysis, leveraging historical data on fragrance note combinations, forecasted future trends, suggesting specific pairings and novel combinations likely to appeal to consumers in the coming years. For example, the analysis predicted a rise in popularity for combinations featuring woody notes paired with fresh, spicy, or fruity accords, reflecting the evolving consumer preference for complex and nuanced fragrances.
Conclusion: process, enabling organizations to develop innovative, customer-centric products with a higher probability of market success. The application of the framework to the perfume industry generated innovative product ideas for women's fragrances, demonstrating its practical value. By considering the interplay of scientific advancements, technological innovations, and evolving consumer preferences, the framework empowers businesses to anticipate future market needs and proactively develop products that resonate with target consumers. Organizations in other industries can adapt and implement this framework, tailoring the specific methods and data sources to their unique context, to drive NPD and gain a competitive edge in the face of ongoing market changes.