نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکترا، گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، واحد یزد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، یزد، ایران
2 استاد گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، واحد یزد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، یزد، ایران
3 دانشیار گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، واحد یزد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، یزد، ایران
4 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد یزد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، یزد، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
EXTENDED ABSTRACT
Introduction: Global economic and environmental transformations have introduced new approaches to sustainable development, among which the circular economy stands out as one of the most significant. The circular economy has emerged as a key strategy to minimize environmental impacts and enhance economic efficiency by focusing on resource consumption reduction, recycling, and product lifecycle optimization. It has developed into a new paradigm in both developed and developing countries, assisting organizations and companies in navigating environments characterized by rapid changes. This study, using the Scenario Wizard method, seeks to explore the future of the circular economy in Iran under the influence of digital technologies. Scenario analysis was employed to identify the key factors affecting this domain, and based on the Cross-Impact Matrix (MICMAC), critical components were determined. Subsequently, utilizing the Scenario Wizard algorithm, several plausible scenarios for the future of the circular economy in Iran were developed.
Methodology: This research is descriptive-exploratory and was conducted through a mixed-methods (quantitative-qualitative) approach. In the first phase, content analysis and expert interviews were used to identify indicators and components. In the next stage, using MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software, 729 different combinations of variables were analyzed. After eliminating incompatible scenarios, seven final scenarios were formulated. These scenarios were categorized into four main quadrants of the scenario dispersion analysis based on their level of consistency and impact.
Discussion and Results: The findings indicate that Scenario 1 represents the most desirable future configuration, depicting a context in which an “aware society” interacts synergistically with a “smart government” to facilitate the advancement of a circular economy. In contrast, Scenarios 3 and 4 function as warning scenarios, suggesting that neglecting critical domains such as employment and innovation may redirect the trajectory of the circular economy toward structural stagnation or even systemic crisis.
Structural analysis was conducted using MICMAC, while scenario development was performed through Scenario Wizard. The analytical output illustrates the interaction patterns among key variables and the spectrum of plausible future scenarios. Results from the cross-impact analysis reveal a relatively high level of interdependency among the selected variables. Specifically, 131 relationships were assigned a value of zero (indicating no influence), 120 relationships reflected weak influence (1), 66 indicated moderately strong influence (2), and 44 demonstrated strong influence (3). Overall, 230 relationships were non-zero, and the matrix fill rate was calculated at 63.71%, indicating substantial structural interconnectedness and systemic complexity.
Considering three possible states for each of the six principal criteria, a total of 729 theoretical scenarios could be generated. However, a significant proportion of these scenarios lacked logical coherence or internal consistency and were therefore excluded from further analysis. Consequently, during the scenario refinement phase, a maximum inconsistency threshold of –1 was applied in the software to retain only those scenarios that were relatively coherent, analytically robust, and realistically plausible.
Conclusion: The results of the third stage presented a multidimensional picture of the future of the circular economy marketing approach based on digital technologies. Some scenarios showed that if innovation is effectively supported, institutional coordination and investment in public culture are implemented, a transformative future will be formed in which sustainable and competitive marketing will be presented as a key advantage in Iran. In contrast, pessimistic scenarios warn that neglect of culture, weak systemic governance and stagnation of innovation could lead to a critical future, a future in which consumer trust decreases, elites migrate and economic capacities are destroyed. Qualitative analysis of the final scenarios shows that the realization of the digital circular economy does not depend solely on technological advances. It also requires fundamental changes in policymaking, cultural development, education and transformations in marketing and business structures. From this perspective, the future will emerge not simply through technological trends, but through complex interactions between different stakeholders, demonstrating that the future of circular economy marketing in Iran is not a predetermined path, but rather an arena of strategic choices and decisions, choices that, if properly guided, can place Iran in a position of competitive transformation, and if neglected, will lead the country towards crisis and structural inefficiency.
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